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Vote For Me and Everything Will Be Free
BY DONALD M. SCARRY PRINCIPAL ECONOMIST, NEW JERSEY ECONOMICS

I have written a column on this subject at the beginning of each administration in Trenton.

I am bored with the topic, but, sadly, it is still right on target and necessary.

Candidate Jim Florio saw no reason to increase taxes. Governor-elect Florio was not able say anything about new taxes until a complete review of the state’s books was completed. Governor Florio brought us what some have called the state’s largest tax increases. I am one of a few people who thought those tax increases necessary, but his lack of candor is still upsetting.

Candidate Christine Whitman told us she would cut income taxes by thirty percent and we would generate hundreds of thousands of jobs. Governor Whitman borrowed huge piles of money to fix her budgets and job growth was anemic.  

Candidate Jim McGreevey also saw no reason to increase taxes. Governor-elect McGreevey told us this unequivocal campaign promise did not, of course, include business taxes or taxes on half-millionaires. Many of the new revenues Governor McGreevey imposed were absolutely necessary, but, once more, there was an upsetting lack of candor.

The tradition continues.

Candidate Jon Corzine is still a relative piker in the lack-of-candor club, but I suspect he will become the club’s president in a few months. Candidate Corzine saw no reason to increase the state’s motor fuels tax, but Governor-elect Corzine now says that was only in the context of gasoline at $3.00 per gallon.

It is our own fault it we did not see the obvious limitations on the promise. An increase in the motor fuels tax is necessary, but Corzine’s lack of candor is neither necessary nor welcome.

The next step may, however, be a shocker, even for New Jerseyans.

Corzine is talking about a $6 billion state budget deficit and the fiscal pain necessary to deal with it. There is a rumor that his staff is thinking about renting a Chicken Little costume for the inauguration; New Jersey’s governor deserves to be appropriately dressed when the sky actually falls.

However, the “real” deficit is nowhere near this level, if a deficit even exists.  

One of the two eternal verities of New Jersey government is that we vote for the candidate we hope will pull off another “loaves and fishes” stunt.” While most of us understand government things are not actually “free,” we assume government will make others pay for the things we want.

As an example, I offer the Art Hog Establishment, which has perfected the art of reaching into your pocket to pay for something you have proven you do not and would not buy. The realization or expectation that someone else will pay for whatever government gives us causes us to ask government for everything.

The second eternal verity—springing from deep-seated ego gratification needs of elected officials—is that governors really want to give us everything. Governors, however, have a different idea of that “someone else” who will eventually pay for today’s excesses—their successors.

Governors know they can, for example, increase rebates today, even in the face of a budget deficit, and the true cost of them to their successor. That means you, our children, and me. That is why New Jerseyans are where we are and why we are there. But, is there anything we can do about this situation?

Yes.

First, let’s bring a little common sense to our budget by breaking it in two – creating a current budget, an operating budget, and a capital budget.

This makes sense. In the year you bought your house, you did not balance your budget and did not care. Let’s apply this bit of common sense to state government. While politicians will almost immediately begin to play the game of switching items between current and capital accounts, it may be easier for us to see what is really going on.

Second, let’s begin to look a bit more closely at the future effects of what we do today. Let’s have the governor submit a five- or ten-year pro forma operating and capital account budgets with the ordinary fiscal year budget. Again, there will be many games played with the economic assumptions for longer-term budgets, but our goal should remain simple—to see what is really going on.

This could be a real benefit to those who have to budget with an eye to future state actions.

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